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maxglute 4 days ago [-]
Just raw/intermediate inputs, not processed HREE. Leached from ionic clay, only economically extractable formation which PRC has ample access (hence dominance), geologically limited outside Asia/Australia (AKA economically extractable heavy rare earth, is in fact, rare). Again, partially processed, looks 2% of global output. Still has to be sent to separation plant for final processing, i.e. someone has to reproduce the entire PRC solvent-extraction stack at industrial scale, which is TBD from USA Rare Earth. This like upstart semi company getting wafers, but have to invent litho machine to print anything - the entire tech stack is Chinese, refined in PRC over last 30 years - needs to be replicated (and improved to US environment standards). USARE has a small batch pilot run, which is TRL5/6, i.e. theoretically where PRC EUV prototype is. This basically PR release about securing dirt.
mullingitover 3 days ago [-]
I've heard that it could cost well north of a trillion to actually wean off China's supply, if it's even possible: this stuff is key to military strategy, and the US dependency on rare earths from China prevents it from being able to attack China militarily. So China's obvious move, if the US is remotely serious about extricating itself from dependency, is to use the same export controls the US has leveraged on AI chips. Endgame in an escalatory path is US high tech, including the defense sector, being hollowed out.
On top of all this, the rare earths industry in China has a serious patent moat. The US would likely need to violate patents to match China's level of production, which would basically be a huge gift to China since they'd then be justified in doing the same.
maxglute 3 days ago [-]
It's not that I don't think US/geopoltical west can't setup their own supply chain, but it's going to be long and hard road, maybe longer and harder than PRC EUV, and news releases like this shouldn't be misconstrued for progress on the hard bits.
Like PRC REE is industrial process(es), iterated over 30+ years, via magnitude larger dedicated talent pipeline (i.e. PRC uni of mining has more graduates than all US mining programs combined). Supported by entire mining cities like Batou or Rare Earth "Kingdom" cities like Ganzhou, Longyan with 100,000s of talent supported by 1,000,000s up/mid/down stream. But it's fine, USARE with <300 employees getting some rocks from Serra Verde is on it. /s
But on the other hand, I don't know, maybe AI will make tweaking industrial processes faster. US just needs to reshore fraction of HREE, maybe just need fraction of the talent and figures out how to automate the process because software somehow 10,000% productivity per head, and USARE will just need watchdog bite security guard if he gets too close to the AI think box.
charlieyu1 3 days ago [-]
Does US really want to deal with pollution that comes with it?
tw04 4 days ago [-]
This is in theory good for everyone. With China using rare earths as a means to control the market as well as exploiting myanmar to mine them, finding a reliable secondary source was vital for national security.
Now whether or not Brazil decides to raze the rainforest to fulfill the orders remains to be seen.
xinayder 3 days ago [-]
It's not good for everyone, definitely not for Brazil. As a Brazilian it's more important we develop the tech to extract and process rare earths than just sell it to the US as we always done to imperialistic countries since 1500.
matheusmoreira 2 days ago [-]
> As a Brazilian it's more important we develop the tech to extract and process rare earths
Then what is Brazil waiting for?
tw04 2 days ago [-]
No offense, but that’s kind of just nonsense. The top three global exporters of timber in the entire world are Canada, Germany, and the US. Which imperial nation is taking advantage of them? Mexico? Vietnam? You can export raw materials without being taken advantage of if you have a fair trade deal in place.
matheusmoreira 2 days ago [-]
USA invaded Venezuela and essentially plundered the country of its natural resources like a pirate. It went far beyond making the US corporations whole.
Milei's economic policies have also hastened Argentina's deindustrialization. Only the raw material extraction industry seems to be growing for some reason.
China is probably the only country in the global south that isn't being taken advantage of right now.
tw04 12 hours ago [-]
Trump doing horrible things in Venezuela has literally nothing to do with a trade agreement for rare earths with Brazil. Complete red herring that is in violation of the rules here to discuss in good faith.
matheusmoreira 12 hours ago [-]
Venezuela is possibly the clearest example of a deeply unequal deal being imposed on another country under threat of force, and this is coming from a guy who originally supported the USA's campaign against the dictator Maduro.
There are those who accuse Milei of being a US puppet who willingly accepts deals like those, and it's very hard to disagree with these people after water resources were sold to Israel. Why fight when you can subvert?
The fear of Bolsonaro delivering Brazil to the USA on a silver platter may well have gotten Lula elected here. I oppose Lula on almost everything and I voted against him knowing the risks, but this is one point where even I'm aligned with him. I'd rather Brazil remain aligned with China than the US.
If you can't see the relation between these "trade agreements" and the notion that the USA and Israel are "taking advantage" of these countries, then I'm not sure what else I can tell you.
Ask yourself: would China or any other country with nukes accept the deal given these terms?
tw04 10 hours ago [-]
Either list specifically what terms in the trade deal with Brazil you take issue with or just stop. This discussion isn’t about China. This discussion isn’t about Venezuela. This discussion isn’t about US politics, this discussion is about Brazil’s trade deal with the US. If you don’t want to be a part of that conversation, I would suggest you find a different place to hang out. This isn’t Reddit, we aren’t here to discuss every issue you take with the US globally.
matheusmoreira 10 hours ago [-]
I take issue with the existence of the deal itself. There shouldn't have been any deal in the first place. I want those resources to sit there in the ground untapped until we have the means to exploit 100% of them for our own purposes instead of shipping them off to the US to bolster their "national security".
Failing that, I'd very much rather we deal with China instead. They are very willing to actually invest in local Brazilian industry with technology transfers, local factories and domestic refineries. This deal has Brazil ship off raw materials to the US for refinement. Not exactly favorable long term. We want to move up in the value chain, not remain stuck in "extractive mining colony" mode until the end of time.
Your original comment began with "this is in theory good for everyone", and that's just funny even with the "in theory" qualifier. It finished with what this is really about: US national security. Which is utterly irrelevant at best and likely against the interests of any non-US person. Brazilian national security involves developing our own local industry and the US is certainly not interested in helping us do that since it is antithetical to their own.
If you feel the discussion is reddit tier, then simply don't reply. I'm not leaving unless dang tells me to leave.
On top of all this, the rare earths industry in China has a serious patent moat. The US would likely need to violate patents to match China's level of production, which would basically be a huge gift to China since they'd then be justified in doing the same.
Like PRC REE is industrial process(es), iterated over 30+ years, via magnitude larger dedicated talent pipeline (i.e. PRC uni of mining has more graduates than all US mining programs combined). Supported by entire mining cities like Batou or Rare Earth "Kingdom" cities like Ganzhou, Longyan with 100,000s of talent supported by 1,000,000s up/mid/down stream. But it's fine, USARE with <300 employees getting some rocks from Serra Verde is on it. /s
But on the other hand, I don't know, maybe AI will make tweaking industrial processes faster. US just needs to reshore fraction of HREE, maybe just need fraction of the talent and figures out how to automate the process because software somehow 10,000% productivity per head, and USARE will just need watchdog bite security guard if he gets too close to the AI think box.
Now whether or not Brazil decides to raze the rainforest to fulfill the orders remains to be seen.
Then what is Brazil waiting for?
Milei's economic policies have also hastened Argentina's deindustrialization. Only the raw material extraction industry seems to be growing for some reason.
China is probably the only country in the global south that isn't being taken advantage of right now.
There are those who accuse Milei of being a US puppet who willingly accepts deals like those, and it's very hard to disagree with these people after water resources were sold to Israel. Why fight when you can subvert?
The fear of Bolsonaro delivering Brazil to the USA on a silver platter may well have gotten Lula elected here. I oppose Lula on almost everything and I voted against him knowing the risks, but this is one point where even I'm aligned with him. I'd rather Brazil remain aligned with China than the US.
If you can't see the relation between these "trade agreements" and the notion that the USA and Israel are "taking advantage" of these countries, then I'm not sure what else I can tell you.
Ask yourself: would China or any other country with nukes accept the deal given these terms?
Failing that, I'd very much rather we deal with China instead. They are very willing to actually invest in local Brazilian industry with technology transfers, local factories and domestic refineries. This deal has Brazil ship off raw materials to the US for refinement. Not exactly favorable long term. We want to move up in the value chain, not remain stuck in "extractive mining colony" mode until the end of time.
Your original comment began with "this is in theory good for everyone", and that's just funny even with the "in theory" qualifier. It finished with what this is really about: US national security. Which is utterly irrelevant at best and likely against the interests of any non-US person. Brazilian national security involves developing our own local industry and the US is certainly not interested in helping us do that since it is antithetical to their own.
If you feel the discussion is reddit tier, then simply don't reply. I'm not leaving unless dang tells me to leave.